2026 Real Estate Predictions for Tulare County & Kings County
Introduction
The real estate landscape in California’s Central Valley—particularly in Tulare County and Kings County—is entering a phase of notable transition. While the broader state‐market has fluctuated in 2025, these counties hold distinctive dynamics owing to affordability, new construction, and geographic migration. In this post, we’ll dig into current data, explore the key drivers, and lay out five major predictions for 2026 that buyers, sellers and real‐estate professionals should know.
Current Market Snapshot (Late 2025)
Before projecting forward, it helps to anchor in what the markets are doing today.
Tulare County
The median sale price in Tulare County was about $380K in October 2025, down ~2.1% year‐over‐year.
According to Zillow for the city of Tulare, the average home value is around $345,040, unchanged over the past year.
The county is experiencing a housing‐boom narrative: low cost of living, active new development, and growing attention in 2025.
Kings County
In Kings County, the median sale price in October 2025 was about $350K, up ~1.4% year‐over‐year.
Days on market in Kings County around that period were about 39 days on average.
These numbers show relative stability in pricing (modest growth or slight decline) but also highlight the affordability edge these counties have versus coastal markets.
Key Drivers Shaping 2026
Understanding the “why” behind market movement will help frame the predictions.
Affordability & Migration
Tulare and Kings Counties offer significantly lower median home prices compared to many California markets, which attracts buyers priced out of coastal cities. For example, Tulare County’s median home price was previously reported around ~$308,500 compared to ~$733,500 statewide.
Migration from higher‐cost regions (or remote‐workers looking for value) will keep demand alive.New Construction / Housing Supply
Tulare County in particular is actively encouraging development of new neighborhoods, helping to meet demand and potentially relieving supply constraints.
The pace of new builds will impact price trajectory, absorption rates, and inventory.Interest Rates & Economic Conditions
While specific predictions for 2026 are always speculative, mortgage rates remain a major variable. Lower rates tend to stimulate buyers; higher rates raise affordability challenges. The broader California market showed a slight rebound in pending sales when rates eased.
Locally, job stability (agriculture, manufacturing, services) provides a baseline that’s less volatile than some metro markets.Inventory Dynamics
In Tulare County, homes sold in ~41 days (Oct 2025) vs. 27 days last year, indicating slower turnover.
In Kings County, Days on Market increased ~8 days year-over‐year.
As inventory grows (via new construction or resale listings), buyers may gain more leverage.Local Risks & External Factors
Important to note: both counties carry wildfire risk, heat‐risk, and in Tulare’s case flood risk. These environmental factors may increasingly influence buyer sentiment, insurance costs, and long‐term value.
🧭 Five Predictions for 2026
Here are my detailed predictions for the 2026 real estate market in Tulare & Kings Counties, along with what each means for buyers, sellers, and agents.
Prediction 1: Modest Home Price Growth, Especially in Entry‐to‐Mid Tier
In Tulare County, given the slight decline in 2025 (~-2.1%), I predict a +1–4% increase in 2026 for median sale price, particularly in the $300K-$450K segment.
In Kings County, given its +1.4% in 2025, expect a +2–5% gain in 2026.
Why? Affordability remains a strength, but supply and interest‐rate headwinds limit big surges.
What it means:
Buyers: Good time to act. If you are considering buying, securing a home now may hedge against modest increases.
Sellers: While this isn’t hyper‐growth territory, you can still expect appreciation. Pricing strategy will matter.
Agents: Educate clients that this isn’t the boom of the last decade, but steady is still healthy.
Prediction 2: Inventory Will Rise Gradually, Shifting Slightly More Buyer Leverage
With the pipeline of new construction in Tulare County, and increasing resale volume in Kings County, inventory should tick up.
Homes may spend somewhat more time on market compared to recent low‐inventory years.
What it means:
Buyers: You’ll have more options and slightly less pressure—but still act smartly.
Sellers: Homes that are priced well and staged properly will sell faster; those priced aggressively may languish.
Agents: Help sellers differentiate (e.g., upgrades, presentation, marketing) and help buyers navigate more choices.
Prediction 3: New Construction Will Be a Larger Share of the Market
Especially in Tulare County, builders are stepping in to meet demand.
Expect more subdivisions, especially in areas like Visalia and surrounding communities.
What it means:
Buyers: If you’re open to new-construction, you may find incentives (financing, upgrades) and potentially faster move‐in times.
Sellers: Resale homes will increasingly compete with brand‐new homes; highlighting unique character or location becomes more important.
Agents: Develop relationships with local builders; position yourself as the expert connecting buyers to new builds and resale homes.
Prediction 4: Affordability Pressures Will Push Some Buyers Further Out / Into Value Areas
As buyer budgets tighten, there’s likely to be migration from the more expensive coastal regions and from buyers priced out of central metro markets.
Communities in these counties (especially smaller cities in Kings and Tulare) may benefit.
What it means:
Buyers: Consider looking in “value” pockets—smaller towns or new‐development fringes may offer more for your money.
Sellers: Highlight affordability, commute options, remote-work friendliness, and lifestyle in your listings.
Agents: Lead with value narratives; create content around relocation, affordability, and quality of life in the Central Valley.
Prediction 5: Environmental, Infrastructure & Policy Issues Will Start to Affect Decisions More Heavily
Risk factors like wildfires, severe heat days, and flood exposure are becoming more visible and will influence buyer behavior. For example: In Kings County, 97% of properties are noted at some risk of wildfire over 30 years.
Infrastructure improvements (roads, utility, broadband) and local zoning/housing‐policy shifts will shape which neighborhoods gain value.
What it means:
Buyers: Incorporate risk into your cost/benefit analysis (insurance, maintenance, long-term resale).
Sellers: Be transparent about risk and play up mitigations (fire‐safe landscaping, newer systems, community measures).
Agents: Know the local risk‐profiles; advise clients accordingly; build trust by demonstrating knowledge of these “hidden” factors.
Location Spotlight: Visalia & Hanford
While the two counties cover many cities, here are two worth special mention:
Visalia (Tulare County): As a larger hub in the county, Visalia’s market often sets the tone. New construction near Visalia may dominate the value growth in 2026.
Hanford (Kings County): For Kings County, Hanford and nearby Lemoore show promise as more affordable (and accessible) options for buyers looking at the Central Valley.
Final Thoughts & Actionable Takeaways
2026 won’t be a runaway boom year in Tulare & Kings Counties—but it’s shaping up to be a solid, value‐driven year. If you’re a buyer, act with clarity, lock in financing, and be selective but decisive. If you’re a seller, focus on presentation, pricing, and differentiating your home in a market where inventory is gradually improving. If you’re an agent, now is the time to position yourself as the local expert for “Central Valley value” and “new construction plus resale” in these counties.
NOTE* Blog was written with the help of AI. Sources include: Redfin, Zillow, local housing and development info, C.A.R info.
